NL East Preview

Teams in the NL EAST and their record last season:

• Philadelphia Phillies 97-65 (Won NL East -third straight)
• Atlanta Braves 91-71
• Florida Marlins 80-82
• New York Mets 79-83
• Washington Nationals 69-93

The past two years, it has been all Phillies winning the division by five games in 2009, and six games in 2010. Here's how the division will unfold in 2011 in my opinion:

FIFTH PLACE - NEW YORK METS

I'm taking a leap of faith here on the Nationals improving but I think the Mets are in serious trouble this year. The main reason I am putting them in last place is their pitching staff. There opening day rotation looks like this: Mike Pelfrey, Jonathon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Chris Young, and Chris Capuano. Mike Pelfrey was dominate to begin the year and then came back down to earth to finish the season with an ERA of 3.66, this isn't horrible but it’s not good enough to be considered the ace of a staff. Niese also had his career best ERA of 4.20, which is not good for a #2. Johan Santana is likely to miss half the season this year and that is going to kill this rotation. In terms of ERA R.A. Dickey was awesome last year but if I was a betting man I would bet on him coming back to his career average of 4.70 instead of his 2.84 he posted last season. The Mets also are strapped for money due to contracts Omar Minaya has strapped them with and the Madoff scandal. They recently cut Oliver Perez; they still owe him 12 million. They also cut Luis Castillo; he is still on the hook for 6 million. That is a lot of dead money. Their owners have put a third of the team on sale, and may have to deal a big-name player by the trade deadline.

FOURTH PLACE - WASHINGTON NATIONALS

The Nationals I believe will edge out the Mets, but not by much. They added Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche over the summer to help them rise in the standings. Adding a guy who hit .296 with 27 homeruns will help an offense a lot if he is able to even come close to those stats. Sadly the Nationals most intriguing players won't be playing in the majors this season: Stephen Strasburg (5-3, 2.91 ERA) and Bryce Harper. Strasburg is still recovering from Tommy John Surgery and Harper is down in single A sculpting his game. We still get to see some exciting players in Ryan Zimmerman, one of the best 3B in the league, and young up and coming star Jordan Zimmerman, likely to post some good numbers this year as a starting pitcher. Jason Marquis last year posted a 2-9 record with an ERA of 6.60, this should come down to his career average around 4.50.

THIRD PLACE - FLORIDA MARLINS

The Florida Marlins will finish third just a game or two out of second place in the NL East this season. They will hang around all the way to the end but towards the end of the season start to fade. This seems to be a trend of them. Josh Johnson has been an early favorite for the CY Young along with Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee of the Philadelphia Phillies. Josh Johnson posted a 2.30 ERA last season, second best in the entire league, which if healthy all season would have easily put him in the top 3 in the CY Young award voting. They have a very young and upcoming rotation which is why I think they will hang in the division. The addition of Javier Vazquez who when last in the NL posted a 2.87 ERA could catapult them to second in the division. Ricky Nolasco went 14-9 4.51 ERA last season, and at times looked dominant, if he can become a consistent pitcher this could become one of the better rotations in the league. The 2009 NL rookie of the year, Chris Coghlan will need to return to his 2009 form for them to have a good season. In 91 games, last season, he hit .268 and drove in just 28 runs. In 2009 he hit .321 with 9 home runs and drove in 28 runs. The loss of Dan Uggla will hurt the offense, especially if Hanley Ramirez doesn't continue to be the best offensive SS in the league.

SECOND PLACE - ATLANTA BRAVES

Let me start this off by saying I think the Braves were very lucky last year to finish where they were. I think they benefited from a lot of players having career years and players being hot and carrying the team for a few weeks. I think Dan Uggla is a good addition, not a great addition as he is a butcher at second base but he can hit the long ball. Their pitching staff last season was immensely overrated. Tim Hudson had a career year posting 17-9 2.83 ERA, this will not happen again. Hudson is a career 3.42 ERA, and will most likely pitch to a low 3 ERA this season. Derek Lowe continues to age and posted an ERA of 4 last season which I think is where you can expect him this year, maybe a little higher. Tommy Hanson had the best season of his career going 10-11 with a 3.33 ERA, at times looking like the best pitcher on this team. I would imagine he will pitch in the 3.30-3.50 ERA this season. The wildcard for this team will be Jair Jurrjens. If he can pitch like he did in 2009 - 2.60 ERA, and not 2010 - 4.64, this team will have a chance to finish first in the division. The Braves have a few very exciting players to watch this season in rookie first baseman Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward's sophomore season. Heyward was a beast last season, but typically players have a "sophomore slump" in their second season. Chipper Jones is also a year older and coming off an injury which I could see really hurting his productivity.

FIRST PLACE - PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

It's almost too easy to predict this at this point. Their rotation is easily the best in the league and could possibly be one of the best of all-time depending on where they finish this season. Their starting rotation looks like this (included are last season’s stats and accolades)

1. Roy Halladay 21-10 2.44 ERA NL Cy Young Award Winner
2. Cliff Lee 12-9 3.18 ERA 2008 AL Cy Young Award Winner
3. Roy Oswalt 13-13 2.76 ERA (7-1 1.74 ERA with Phillies) 2005 NLCS MVP
4. Cole Hamels 12-11 3.06 ERA 2008 World Series MVP
5. Joe Blanton 9-6 4.82 ERA

As you can see their pitching dominated the league last season. All four pitchers are pretty much in their prime. Two righties, two lefties, power and precision. They also have a pretty good offense. Their offense is not as powerful as it was in past years but it still an above average lineup and with that pitching they should only need to scratch a few runs a game to win games, i.e. The San Francisco Giants. They are not without their problems though, Chase Utley is currently hobbled, and Domonic Brown recently broke his wrist. They also have a suspect bullpen with Brad Lidge at the back end. The bullpen should not get to many innings this year with that starting rotation though, they were last in the league last season in innings pitched and with the addition of an inning eater in Cliff Lee it should go down even more. The only relievers who are likely to get worked a lot are Set-up man Ryan Madson and closer Brad Lidge. I don't know if the Phillies will win the World Series because like most people say the playoffs are a 'crap-shoot'. Once you get there anything can happen, whoever is the hottest team wins, aka the San Francisco Giants just last season. One thing I think the rotation guarantees is a ton of regular season wins, they won 97 last year. It would not surprise me at all for them to surpass 100 this season and lead the league in wins.