What's Wrong With Pujols??

Albert Pujols is having his least productive start of his career at the worst time he could possibly have it currently. Pujols is a free agent after the next season and is searching for a contract in upwards of 150 million dollars. I have compared his first 11 games this season to what he has done his first 11 games of his past seasons, here is the stats:

Albert Pujols First 11 Games Per Year
Year	At Bats	Hits	Runs	HR'S	RBI's	BB	K'S	AVG.
2011	45	9	3	1	4	4	5	0.200
2010	44	16	9	5	15	8	9	0.364
2009	41	14	12	4	13	9	1	0.341
2008	37	14	7	3	8	10	4	0.378
2007	43	8	7	3	7	5	6	0.186
2006	37	11	11	5	12	12	5	0.297
2005	44	11	8	3	5	5	3	0.250
2004	41	12	12	4	11	10	1	0.293
2003	40	12	11	2	7	7	5	0.300
2002	43	13	9	1	11	9	5	0.302
2001	38	15	7	4	12	4	6	0.395

As you can see not only is this his second worst season in terms of hits in the first 11 games, it’s his worst season in terms of HR's, RBI's, and BB's. Last year he got off to one of his hottest starts of his career with 5 homeruns in his first 11 games. If you try to see which season this one is most similar to, it would have to be 2007 when he started off hitting only .186, but he had 2 more HR's and 3 more RBI's. That year he finished the season with .327, 32 HR's, 103 RBI's. It was his worst season in terms of HR's and RBI's in his entire career. 

If we take the above stats from 11 games and multiply them by his typical games played (155.8 per season average) we can get an estimated total of what he is currently on pace for this season.

Albert Pujols Estimated Season Totals
Year	At Bats	Hits	Runs	HR'S	RBI's	BB	K'S	AVG.
2011	637	127	42	14	57	57	71	0.200

I can tell you right away there is a 0% chance that Albert Pujols hits less than 25 HR's this year, hits in less than 100 runs, and hits under .275. This is a guy who has averaged .330 for his entire career, and also averaged 40.8 HR's a season with 123 RBI's.

    Albert Pujols Yearly Stats

Year	HR	RBI
2010	42	118
2009	47	135
2008	37	116
2007	32	103
2006	49	137
2005	41	117
2004	46	123
2003	43	124
2002	34	127
2001	37	130
AVG	40.8	123

Pujols has plenty of time, approximately 145 games to make up for his lack of hits, HR's, and RBI's, but can he do it while the pressure builds on his contract status and on his injury-riddled team?

I personally don't think he will put up MVP numbers again this year, but I also don't think it’s all on him. He has a lineup that gives him zero protection; teams have no reason to even pitch to him with the current lineup. Matt Holliday is a good hitter, but nowhere near Pujols. I think you will see Pujols raise his average to above .300 and finish around .310-.320 at the end of the year but instead of 40+ homeruns, I think we will see a total of around 30-35, and 105-110 RBI's. As said earlier I think this season will almost mirror his 2007 season identically at the end of the year.

If there is one thing baseball has taught us over the years its the "law of averages". The law of averages states that a player will always be what he has always been. For example, you sometimes see people at the all-star breaking destroying there previous stats, but at the end of the year there stats come back to earth and finish around where they always have. A good example of this would be Ubaldo Jimenez last season:

First Half: 15-1, 2.20 ERA
Second Half: 4-7, 3.80 ERA
Best Previous Season: 15-12, 3.47 ERA

That is just one example, these happen almost every year where players get off to hot/cold starts and end up right where they always do. Mark Teixeria is another player that comes to mind, he always starts slow and every season analysts question if he is declining, and he always ends the season around the same numbers (excluding last year).